The Purbaya Effect, Banking Stock Rebound, and Implications for Public Policy in the National Economy
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study examines the so-called Purbaya Effect, referring to the influence of credible economic leadership on the rebound of banking stocks in Indonesia and its broader implications for public policy and the national economy. Using a qualitative approach supported by secondary data on stock market performance, investor sentiment, and regulatory responses, the study finds that leadership credibility significantly reduces uncertainty and restores confidence in the financial sector. The rebound of banking stocks, following periods of market turbulence, demonstrates the central role of strategic communication and policy signaling in stabilizing capital markets. Furthermore, the findings highlight how banking recovery contributes to macroeconomic resilience, capital flows, and fiscal stability. This paper concludes that the Purbaya Effect not only explains short-term market corrections but also underpins long-term policy directions that strengthen economic governance and public trust.
Downloads
Article Details
Section

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Ahleyani, M. A., Alfandi, A. N., & Anggara, D. (2025). Integrating STEM Vocabulary into English Language Teaching: Challenges and Renewable Energy Potential in the Department of Electrical Engineering. Journal of Language, Literature and Teaching, 7(1), 26-36.
Ahleyani, M., Sihombing, R. A., & Nadhifah, A. (2025). Sustainable Education Efforts Through Digital Platforms: A Case Study of Dreams Foundation in Dompu Regency, West Nusa Tenggara. Journal of Social Growth and Development Studies, 1(2), 63-67.
Arjun, R. (2021). Developing banking intelligence in emerging markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 30. ScienceDirect.
Dasuki, H., Suripto, S., & Wardianto, K. B. (2025). The influence of CAMEL ratio on bank stock price changes post COVID-19 in banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Eastasouth Journal of Social Science and Humanities, 2(03), 313. https://doi.org/10.58812/esssh.v2i03.605 Eastasouth Institute.
Frankel, J. A. (2010). Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16125. National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER.
Gui, J. (2024). Research on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on investor sentiment and growth enterprise market returns: Evidence from China. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 12(4), 108-126. (Though this focuses on China, the methodology and findings on how policy uncertainty interacts with investor sentiment and returns are relevant to “policy signaling” effects. ) MDPI.
Heryanto. (2016). Effect of liquidity and profitability on bank stock return in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 6(3), 131-138. IDEAS/RePEc.
Hou, X. (2021). Policy signaling and stock price synchronicity. Journal of Financial Economics, 141(1), 159-182. ScienceDirect.
Indah Puspita, A., & Ratnawati, D. (2025). Empirical study on the determinants of stock returns: Evidence from the banking industry in Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Akuntansi, Keuangan dan Pajak, 9(2). ResearchGate.
Isnurhadi, et al. (2022). Empirical study of the banking industry in ASEAN countries: Risk, growth, and sustainability. Sustainability, 15(1), Article 564. MDPI.
Karanasos, M., & others. (2021). Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals. Finance Research Letters, 45, 102104. PMC.
Nguyen, T. H. P. (2025). Equity returns volatility in an emerging economy amidst uncertainty. Emerging Markets Review, 50, 100. ScienceDirect.
Niswa, M., Ahleyani, M., & Pratama, A. K. (2025). ARENBIOPACK: Bioplastik Galaktomanan Kolang-Kaling dan Nanocellulose Batang Aren Melalui Solvent Casting Untuk Kemasan Ramah Lingkungan Berbasis Circular Bioeconomy. Jurnal Sains, Sosial, dan Studi Agama, 1(7), 761-775.
Ogundeji, I. A. B., Omowole, B. M., Adaga, E. M., & Sam-Bulya, N. J. (2023). Strategic leadership in banking for resilient growth during economic uncertainty. International Journal of Management and Organizational Research, 2(1), 115-127. ResearchGate.
Park, H., & Zhao, M. (2024). Research on the dynamic interrelationship between economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(8), 347. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17080347. MDPI.
Pujangga, F., & Handrijaningsih, L. (2024). Factors affecting banking stock price on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2017 to 2021. Formosa Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 3(9), 3561-3576. https://doi.org/10.55927/fjmr.v3i9.11413.Formosa Publisher.
Ramadhan, D., Ahleyani, M., Lestari, I. G. A. C. W., Ramadhan, H. O., & Yolanda, S. (2025). SINERGISTA (Agrotourism Synergy): A Sustainable Tourism Development Strategy Based on Digitalization Through the Pentahelix Collaboration Model to Support the 2030 SDGs. The Eastasouth Journal of Information System and Computer Science, 3(01), 125-138.
Ramadhan, D., & Ahleyani, M. (2025). Efektivitas Sistem Seedtrack Berbasis Blockchain Dalam Tata Kelola Lingkungan Hutan Rakyat. Jurnal Nawala Politika, 3(1), 49-68.
Ranjiv A.A Sihombing, etc., “Utilization of Sugarcane Bagasse Waste forEco-Friendly Roofing: Synergy of Agrowaste Management and Sustainable Architecture ”,Nexus: Journal of Cross-Disciplinary Insights, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2025, P. 45-56.
Safitri, N. S., et al. (2025). The effect of profitability and leverage on stock return rate mediated by dividend policy: Empirical study of banks and financial institutions listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal Enrichment, 2(10), Article 255. https://doi.org/10.55324/enrichment.v2i10.255.journalenrichment.com.
Salisu, A. A., & Taofiq, O. (2023). Policy uncertainty and stock market volatility revisited: The predictive power of political risk. Finance Research Letters, 50, 102933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.102933 Wiley Online Library.
Sonenshine, R., & Aboulhosn, A. (2025). Impact of political risk on emerging market risk premiums and risk-adjusted returns. Research in International Business and Finance, 73, Article 102573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.1025731924003660. IDEAS/RePEc.
Wibien, J. D., et al. (2025). An analysis of conventional and Islamic banks in Indonesia: Key financial ratios affecting stock price (2018-2023). Oikonamia, Journal of Economics, 9(1), Article. journal.unas.ac.id.
Williams Jr., R. I. (2022). A systematic review of leader credibility: Its murky conceptualization and measurement. PLOS ONE, 17(4), e0266461. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266461.PMC.
Wiyarni, W., Ashar, Y., & Arniati, T. (2022). Competitiveness and bank stability: Empirical study on banking listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2020. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 12, 1088-1104. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2022.126058 scirp.org.
Zhao, M., & Park, H. (2024). Research on the dynamic interrelationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(8), 347.